U.S. oil prices closed above $60 a barrel on the final trading day of the year, the first time since mid-2015, as the commodity ended 2017 with a 12 percent gain spurred by strong demand and declining global inventories.
International benchmark Brent crude futures ended the year with a 17 percent rise, supported by ongoing supply cuts by top producers OPEC and Russia as well as strong demand from China.
The spread between the benchmarks widened throughout the year, as Brent responded to the drawdown in supply from major world producers while U.S. output continued to grow.
The gains indicate that the global glut that has dogged the market since 2014 is shrinking.
Earlier this year, oil prices slumped on concerns that rising crude production from Nigeria, Libya and elsewhere would undermine output cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia. But prices have rallied nearly 50 percent since the middle of the year on robust demand and strong compliance with the production limits.
"That trend is likely to continue into 2018 and worldwide oil inventories will continue their decline," said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates in Houston.
Lipow said he expected U.S. crude prices to creep up to around $63 a barrel by the end of next year, while Brent would remain around $67 a barrel as U.S. oil exports rise to record levels.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled at $60.42, the highest close since June 2015. Brent crude futures were last up 45 cents at $66.62 a barrel at 1932 GMT. Brent broke through $67 this week for the first time since May 2015.
WTI prices were supported by data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration late on Thursday showing domestic oil production declined last week to 9.75 million barrels per day (bpd) from 9.79 million bpd the previous week.
Monthly EIA data released on Friday showed U.S. crude production hit a 46-year high in October, but the country's oil exports and demand also rose.
U.S. output is up almost 16 percent since mid-2016. Analysts expect production to top 10 million bpd in the next few weeks and to keep growing, limiting efforts by other producers to cap global supplies.
"The U.S. shale impact is now encroaching on uncharted territory," analysts at RBC Capital Markets wrote this month, saying it had "redrawn the global crude flow map."
WTI prices were further boosted by an EIA report of a 4.6 million barrel weekly drop in U.S. commercial crude storage levels. Inventories are down by almost 20 percent from historic highs last March, and well below this time last year or in 2015.
Extreme cold weather across much of North America could also boost U.S. crude prices by causing production problems in the oilfields.
PIPELINE OUTAGES
In international markets, China has issued crude oil import quotas totalling 121.32 million tonnes for 44 companies in its first batch of allowances for 2018.
China's imports at around 8.5 million bpd, already the world's biggest, are expected to hit another record in 2018 as new refining capacity is brought online and Beijing allows more independent refiners to import crude.
Pipeline outages in Libya and the North Sea have supported oil prices, although both disruptions are expected to be resolved by early January.
Libya is to start repairing the pipeline near the Es Sider terminal this weekend, a Libyan oil official said, while the Forties pipeline was already pumping close to normal levels, according to trading sources.
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U.S. oil prices closed above $60 a barrel on the final trading day of the year, the first time since mid-2015, as the commodity ended 2017 with a 12 percent gain spurred by strong demand and declining global inventories.
International benchmark Brent crude futures ended the year with a 17 percent rise, supported by ongoing supply cuts by top producers OPEC and Russia as well as strong demand from China.
The spread between the benchmarks widened throughout the year, as Brent responded to the drawdown in supply from major world producers while U.S. output continued to grow.
It is hard to predict what will happen to market-linked investments on a 12-month basis, but what all investors can do is to be level-headed and pragmatic in their approach.
On the back of 30 percent plus equity returns in 2017, investors have high expectations from 2018. As we step into a New Year, it is time for introspection and resolve.
It is hard to predict what will happen to market-linked investments on a 12-month basis, but what all investors can do is to be level-headed and pragmatic in their approach.
Here are 4 important resolutions that will help one to get more out of their investments:
Save and invest first, spend next:
Saving is the cornerstone of investment. Yet, the focus on investment often takes the sheen off savings. Since investing requires capital, you have to save.
Investors should target 20-25 percent savings every month, and invest the money as per your risk profile and asset allocation strategy. Do not try to take loans to invest.
Also, avoid using leverage to gain big on investments. The simplest way is to save, and then spend.
Retain expenses but use incremental income towards investment:
A New Year often brings good news in the form of salary hikes and bonuses in some cases. But, the average salaried employee often fritters away the incremental income.
As a result, the investment capacity remains the same. To avoid this in 2018, retain the expenses at the same level as in 2017.
This will mean that you will be left with the higher income, which should be used to invest. A mere 10 percent annual rise in a regular monthly investment over ten years can boost by a significant amount.
Ascertain investment risk:
Investing entails a certain amount of risk. Investment risk can be of various types like interest rate risk, business/security risk, credit risk, taxability risk, inflationary risk, liquidity risk, currency risk and exchange risk.
Investors usually look at historical returns while deciding to invest. For 2018, try to find out the investment risk associated with the asset class, be it debt or equity, so that you understand the risk-reward pay off much better.
For instance, a high-risk junk bond that pays 2 percent more compared to a government bond may look attractive, but is it worthwhile to accept principal erosion risk for 2 percent more?
Create investment portfolio based on your goals:
Random amounts like Rs 1 crore or Rs 5 crore look big, but humans are driven more by emotions than just numbers.
While it is good to imagine yourself a crorepati in 15 years, if the Rs 1 crore is your retirement corpus then suddenly the goal becomes sacrosanct.
When you start sewing up investments in 2018, always create the investment portfolio depending on simple and achievable goals like son's higher education, second car, foreign trip, daughter's marriage, my retirement etc.
Defining a goal helps investors in understanding the amount of time and the amount of risk they can take to reach the destination.
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Disclaimer:-The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts are their own. Ripples Advisory advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
On the back of 30 percent plus equity returns in 2017, investors have high expectations from 2018. As we step into a New Year, it is time for introspection and resolve.
Disclaimer:-The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts are their own. Ripples Advisory advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
Adopting a contrarian strategy can be better for a bet for the year 2018 which should reward investors in case market turns out to be very volatile and turbulent.
Indian benchmark indices signed off the years in style after netting a gain of around 27 percent in the year gone by. This kind of return, especially on the back of underperformance in the preceding two years, may not appear to be excessive return.
There were many such occasion in the past since 1980 when the market has continued to deliver in the subsequent year even after clocking 25 percent plus kind of returns.
For this purpose, if we dissect the long-term trends then we will know that this market is staring at a critical resistance level placed around 10,650 and in need of a breakout.
What Strategy suits for 2018?
Adopting a contrarian strategy can be better for a bet for the year 2018 which should reward investors in case market turns out to be very volatile and turbulent.
In the midst of this strong bull market, certain sectors like PSU Banking and Pharma were almost reeling under the bear market kind of scenario where IT was out of favour with low institutional interest.
Hence, one main advantage of going long in select pockets from these sectors is that downside will be insulated even if the market is going to correct drastically.
Especially in case of PSU Banking space where efforts are being made to clean up the Balance Sheets a decent price appreciation can be expected over a period of time by focusing on stocks like Punjab National Bank and BOB.
Similarly one should look to find long-term investment opportunities in the recently listed Insurance players which slipped below their IPO prices and appears to be stabilising now.
Besides, leadership may change from Financials especially from NBFCs and Housing Finance Companies as they have underperformed the last leg of rally despite Nifty50 made new lifetime highs. At best they can remain market performers.
Top 5 stocks which can give up to 16% return in the short term:
HUL: BUY| Target Rs1465| Stop Loss Rs1337| Return 7%
After hitting new lifetime highs this counter appears to have witnessed a breakout above its 4-month-old channel which is projecting a target placed around Rs1,465 levels.
As long as it sustains above Rs1,340 levels one can retain a positive outlook and buy for the said target. A Stop Loss should be placed below Rs1,337 on a closing basis.
Tata Steel: BUY| Target Rs793| Stop Loss Rs690| Return 8%
This counter, a couple of days back, witnessed a channel breakout signalling the end of correction in which it slipped towards Rs660 levels.
However, Rs735 is looking like a critical resistance on the long-term charts and once this hurdle is cleared on a closing basis its next logical target is placed at Rs793.
As the long-term trend is intact in this counter, positional traders should create fresh long positions in anticipation of a breakout for a target of Rs790 with a stop below Rs690 on closing basis.
Gruh Finance: BUY| Target Rs550| Stop Loss Rs490| Return 9%
Long-term charts on this counter are looking quite interesting as a fall of 10 percent from its life time highs of Rs553 appears to be providing a good opportunity for the Bulls around Rs500.
The counter is slowly seeing some sort of accumulation because, for the last three months, the counter closed around Rs500 with a positive bias.
As on daily charts, a trend line breakout also witnessed. Positional traders should long on the stock for initial targets of Rs550 with a stop below Rs490 on a closing basis.
Satin Credit: BUY| Target Rs534| Stop Loss Rs437| Return 16%
Off late, this counter was buzzing on the back of technical breakouts and after a brief pause, it now appears that it has resumed its uptrend with a price and volume breakout in the last Wednesday’s session.
Hence, last two days of weakness should be considered as one more opportunity to go long in the counter for a target of Rs534 with a stop placed below Rs437 on a closing basis.
NMDC: BUY| Target Rs152| Stop Loss Rs133| Return 11%
This counter has registered a breakout on higher volumes in last Tuesday session and after the breakout, it appears that it is in pause mode providing one more opportunity to go long.
Hence, short-term traders should make use of the current weakness to go long for a target of 152 with a stop below 133 on a closing basis.
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Disclaimer:-The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts are their own. Ripples Advisory advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
Indian ADRs ended higher on Friday. Dr Reddy's Laboratories rose 0.94 percent and Infosys rose 0.37 percent.
Indian ADRs ended higher on Friday. In the IT space, Infosys rose 0.37 percent at USD 16.22 and Wipro added 1.11 percent at USD 5.47.
In the banking space, HDFC Bank gained 0.63 percent at USD 101.67 and ICICI Bank was down 0.21 percent at USD 9.73.In the other sectors, Tata Motors advanced 2.32 percent at USD 33.07 and Dr Reddy's Laboratories rose 0.94 percent at USD 37.56.
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Bumper Listing:Astron Paper and Board Mills started off trade with a hefty premium of 141 percent at Rs 120.75 on the National Stock Exchange, against issue price of Rs 50 per share.
Affordable Houses Approval: The Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs has approved the construction of over 5.4 lakh more affordable houses for urban poor under the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (Urban), according to an official release.
The construction of houses entails an investment of Rs 31,003 crore. The central assistance will be to the tune of Rs 8,107 crore, the release said.
In the latest approval, Andhra Pradesh has been sanctioned 1,42,447 houses, while Uttar Pradesh got 1,20,645 houses and Karnataka 1,18,646.
Madhya Pradesh has been sanctioned 1,00,341 houses; Jharkhand 30,486; Chhattisgarh 29,703 and Arunachal Pradesh 2,822 houses.
This takes the total number of houses funded under PMAY (Urban) to 37,42,667.
Pre-Opening: Astron Paper & Board Mills share price settled at Rs 115 in pre-opening trade on the National Stock Exchange, up 130 percent premium over its issue price of Rs 50.
USFDA Approval: Shares of Lupin gained 2 percent in morning trade as it has received final approval from USFDA for Calcipotriene Topical Solution.
The company has received final approval for its Calcipotriene Topical Solution, 0.005% (Scalp Solution) from the United States Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) to market a generic version of Dovonex Scalp Solution, 0.005% of Leo Pharmaceutical Products.
Company's Calcipotriene Topical Solution, 0.005% (Scalp Solution) is the AT rated generic equivalent of Leo Pharmaceutical Products' Dovonex Scalp Solution, 0.005%.
It is indicated for the topical treatment of chronic, moderately severe psoriasis of the scalp.
Sebi on rating agencies: Markets regulator Sebi said cross-holding in credit rating agencies (CRAs) will be capped at 10 percent and also decided to raise the minimum networth requirement to Rs 25 crore from the current Rs 5 crore.
Also, the board of Sebi has approved a slew of measures for tightening the financial and operational eligibility of the promoters of CRAs, besides greater disclosure requirements for them.
The moves are likely to have an impact on global rating agencies like S&P, Moody's and Fitch which have significant holdings in domestic agencies besides their direct presence.
Buzzing: Shares of Tata Global Beverage has touched 52-week high of Rs 309, gaining 1 percent in the early trade on Friday as it has sold stake in its associate company.
The company through a share sale and purchase agreement has divested 31.85 percent stake (1,20,78,406 shares) in the joint venture company Estate Management Services (EMSPL) for a consideration of Rs 120 crore.
Consequently, EMSPL has ceased to become an associate of the company effective December 28, 2017.
This is a part of company's overall strategy to focus on branded business in key geographies.
Tata Steel, Vedanta, Bosch, UPL, Eicher Motors, Hero MotoCorp and SBI were early gainers while HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank were under pressure.
Nifty Midcap was up 0.6 percent.
Reliance Communications surged 28 percent on sealing wireless assets deal with Reliance Jio.
Monnet Ispat, Jaiprakash Power and JP Associates rallied 5-13 percent.
Disclaimer:-The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts are their own. Ripples Advisory advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
The current uptrend will resume once we see Nifty breaking past the 10,480-10,500 resistance zone on a closing basis. Post which we expect Nifty making a dash towards the 10,580-10,610 zone.
Hadrien Mendonca
IIFL
After hitting a fresh life-time high in the previous trading session, Nifty consolidated around the 10,470-10,500 zone on Thursday. Once again post fresh highs, traders preferred to take some money off the table as the PSU banks, select auto and media stocks were on the receiving end.
The Nifty50 formed a bearish engulfing kind of a pattern on Wednesday followed by a shooting star candlestick pattern indicating indices may enter into another phase of consolidation.
The current uptrend will resume once we see Nifty breaking past the 10,480-10,500 resistance zone on a closing basis. Post which we expect Nifty making a dash towards the 10,580-10,610 zone.
On the downside, support zone is seen around the 10,380-10,400 zone. Yet again focus should be on the mid and the small-cap stocks that are showing signs of outperformance.
This suggests that sticking to stocks outside the index would provide better returns at the current juncture.
Here is a list of three stocks that could give up to 15% returns in the short term:
Ramco Systems: BUY| Target Rs610| Stop Loss Rs490| Return 15.7%
Since November 2016 the stock has been forming a rounding bottom kind of a formation which indicates a reversal pattern is in the making. Ramco System has in the previous week broken out from the bottoming out phase which are signs of a continuation.
The stock is comfortably trading in a higher top higher bottom structure. In addition, the stock is also maintaining the short term exponential moving averages. This further accentuates our bullish stance on the stock. We expect a medium-term target of Rs 610.
GIC Housing Finance: BUY| Target Rs520| Stop Loss Rs443| Returns 11.3%
The stock has been in a declining mode for the past six months, since then GIC Housing has corrected from highs of Rs 620 to lows of Rs 390 recorded in the previous week. This correction phase saw the stock enter into a lower top lower bottom cycle.
However, the recent run-up has seen GIC Housing piercing the neckline of the declining channel pattern with a strong uptick in traded volumes.
This indicates that a trend reversal is on the cards. In this process, GIC has also surpassed its previous peak of Rs 462 which further adds positivity to the stock. We expect a decent 11% upside for the stock in the medium term.
L&T: BUY| Target Rs1360| Stop Loss Rs1202| Returns 9%
After consolidating for over five months the stock has broken out from a Cup and handle pattern on the daily chart. L&T is currently managing to stay above the price pattern breakout convincingly.
In addition, our daily chart analysis also indicates that the price structure is also currently exhibiting a flag pattern breakout, targeting the Rs 1,360 level on the upside.
Rising volumes and positive crossover indicate that the current momentum is likely to extend further. We expect L&T to rise higher; it is advisable to keep a stop loss of Rs 1202.
Disclaimer:-The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts are their own. Ripples Advisory advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
RCom said the deal consideration comprised of cash payment and transfer of deferred spectrum installments payable to Department of Telecommunications.
Reliance Communications shares surged as much as 35 percent in early trade Friday after the company signed an agreement to sell its wireless assets to Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Jio Infocomm.
The rally is an addition to 90 percent upside seen in previous three consecutive sessions.
The transaction, which is subject to lenders' and other applicable approvals, will close in phased manner in January-March 2018.
While RCom stands to gain from the sale, the proceeds of which will be used for the company's debt reduction, Reliance Jio expects the assets to bolster the rollout of its wireless and FTTH services.
According to the deal, Reliance Jio will acquire RCom's assets such as:
-
122.4 MHz of 4G Spectrum in the 800/900/1800/2100 MHz bands
-
Over 43,000 towers , amongst the top 3 independent tower holdings in India
-
Approximately 1,78,000 RKM of fiber with pan India footprint
-
248 Media Convergence Nodes, covering around 5 million square feet used for hosting telecom infrastructure
The announcement comes two days after Reliance Communications unveiled a mega restructuring programme that envisaged cutting the company's massive debt by more than 85 percent, Reliance Group Chairman Anil Ambani had said the repayment plan was not just about business.
On Tuesday, Ambani announced that RCom would sell telecom assets, including spectrum, towers, fibres and some real estate assets worth of Rs 25, 000 crore by the end of March 2018 to pay lenders and exit the strategic debt restructuring programme. This way RCom will achieve full resolution of its debt by cutting it to Rs 6,000 crore by monetising assets.
RCom had a debt of about Rs 45,000 crore as of FY17.
At 09:22 hours IST, the stock price of Reliance Communications was quoting at Rs 38.11, up Rs 7.15, or 23.09 percent while Reliance Industries was quoting at Rs 928, up Rs 3.60, or 0.39 percent on the BSE.
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- 122.4 MHz of 4G Spectrum in the 800/900/1800/2100 MHz bands
- Over 43,000 towers , amongst the top 3 independent tower holdings in India
- Approximately 1,78,000 RKM of fiber with pan India footprint
- 248 Media Convergence Nodes, covering around 5 million square feet used for hosting telecom infrastructure
The announcement comes two days after Reliance Communications unveiled a mega restructuring programme that envisaged cutting the company's massive debt by more than 85 percent, Reliance Group Chairman Anil Ambani had said the repayment plan was not just about business.
Reliance Communications surged 28 percent on sealing wireless assets deal with Reliance Jio.
Equity benchmarks started off the January series on a strong note as the Nifty reclaimed 10,500 level, backed by positive Asian cues.
The 30-share BSE Sensex was up 94.26 points at 33,942.29 and the 50-share NSE Nifty rose 26.30 points to 10,504.20.
Tata Steel, Vedanta, Bosch, UPL, Eicher Motors, Hero MotoCorp and SBI were early gainers while HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank were under pressure.
Nifty Midcap was up 0.6 percent.
Reliance Communications surged 28 percent on sealing wireless assets deal with Reliance Jio.
Monnet Ispat, Jaiprakash Power and JP Associates rallied 5-13 percent.
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Motilal Oswal prefers 4-wheelers over 2-wheelers & commercial vehicles due to strong volume growth & stable competitive environment.
Motherson Sumi Systems
Brokerage - Motilal Oswal | Rating - Buy | Target - Rs 458
Motilal Oswal has initiated coverage with a Buy rating on Motherson Sumi Systems and set a target price at Rs 458 per share, citing strong organic growth opportunities for the company in international & domestic market.
The research house expects revenue to grow 22 percent between FY17-20.
Autos
Motilal Oswal said 2-wheeler demand remained mixed as the momentum gained from the wedding season in the northern belt is partially negated by muted sales in Rajasthan, Gujarat and Maharashtra. Hero MotoCorp witnessed strong demand for motorcycles during the recently concluded wedding season in north.
It prefers 4-wheelers over 2-wheelers & commercial vehicles due to strong volume growth & stable competitive environment.
Top picks in autos are Motherson Sumi, Bajaj Auto, Tata Motors & Amara Raja Batteries, Motilal Oswal said.
BFSI
Edelweiss said the research house perceived high probability of interest rates hardening given rising inflation expectations, likely fiscal slippage and higher-than-anticipated government borrowing programme.
Also, liquidity is normalising from excess and banks are now raising bulk deposit rates, it added.
The rise in interest rate, primarily goaded by macro factors rather than growth, will essentially entail earnings pressure and be negative for the BFSI sector, it feels.
Within NBFCs, Edelweiss prefers niche players like Shriram Transport (will manage NIMs well). Equitas, being a small finance bank (SFB), will not be impacted much as it will see a shift towards deposits at relatively lower funding cost, it feels.
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