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Thursday, 31 August 2017

RBI Sets Rupee Reference Rate At 64.0154 Against Dollar

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The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Thursday fixed the reference rate of the rupee at 64.0154 against the US dollar and 76.0439 for the euro.

The corresponding rates were 63.9431 and 76.4504, yesterday.

According to an RBI statement, the exchange rates for the pound and the yen against the rupee were 82.6961 and 57.91 per 100 yens, respectively, based on reference rates for the dollar and cross-currency quotes at noon.

The SDR-rupee figure will be based on this rate, the statement added.

DRI busts smuggling racket at FPO; seizes Rs 8.5 cr worth gold

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The Directorate of Revenue Intelligence (DRI) has seized gold, steroids and other goods, worth Rs 15 crore, illegally imported from abroad via Foreign Post Office (FPO).

It has arrested five persons, including an inspector (Customs), posted at the FPO.

"The DRI has conducted massive search operation in Delhi/ Faridabad and at foreign post office, New Delhi, and seized smuggled goods worth Rs 15 crore which was illegally imported through FPO, New Delhi," the agency said in a press release today.

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The DRI has busted two such gangs and seized 24-carat 28 kg gold, worth Rs 8.5 crore, steroid worth Rs five crore and other high-value items, it said.


Evidence indicates that parcels containing these goods had originated from Thailand, Dubai, Turkey, Hong Kong and Indonesia, the DRI said.

The syndicate involves a large number of people, who were bringing restricted/prohibited goods like steroids, gold, electronic items, food supplements, saffron, cigarettes etc, it said.

Google commits $1 million to flood relief ops in India, Nepal

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Lending a helping hand in the flood relief operations in India, Nepal and Bangladesh, Google has committed $1 million to NGOs Goonj and Save the Children.

While Save the Children is responding to the floods in all three countries, with the aim to reach a total of 1,60,000 people, Goonj aims to help 75,000 families in nine affected states in India, according to Google.

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Save the Children's efforts include providing food and livelihood support, temporary shelter materials for those most in need, hygiene items, and water source restoration, while also focusing on setting up child-friendly spaces where children can gain access to educational materials.

Goonj's relief efforts include providing families with food, mats, blankets and hygiene items. In the long term, it aims to help rebuild and revive community structures such as roads, bridges and schools.

Apart from offering funds to the NGOs, Google's crisis response team has also activated SOS alerts in the three countries.

Closing Bell: Last hour surge helps Sensex end in green, Nifty above 9900

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Benchmark indices ended the session on a positive note, with the Nifty closing above 9900-mark.
The Sensex was up 84.03 points at 31730.49, while the Nifty was up 33.50 points at 9917.90. The market breadth was in favour of advances as 1509 shares advanced against a decline of 1062 shares, while 134 shares were unchanged.

Adani Ports, Wipro and Tata Power gained the most on both indices, while Bosch, Bharti Infratel, Infosys and M&M were the top losers.

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Mild gains were seen on benchmark indices in the final hour of trade, with the Nifty inching towards 9900-mark.
The Sensex was up 25.35 points at 31671.81, while the Nifty was up 6.90 points at 9891.30. The market breadth was narrow as 1386 shares advanced against a decline of 1024 shares, while 131 shares were unchanged.

Indian Rupee Opens Flat At 64.03 Per Dollar

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The Indian rupee opened flat at 64.03 per dollar on Thursday versus previous close 64.02.
Mohan Shenoi of Kotak Mahindra Bank said, "While North Korea related developments are keenly watched by currency markets, the resolution of Doklam standoff with China is rupee positive. USD-INR trading range for the day is 63.90-64.20."

He further added, "Healthy tax collections under GST is bond positive. However, this is offset by oversupply of state development loans, open market operations and concern over farm loan waiver by states."
"10-year benchmark's expected trading range for the day is 6.52-6.56 percent," he said.

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Gold Inches Lower As Dollar Gains On Strong U.S. Economic Data

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Gold prices edged lower early on Thursday as the dollar gained on positive U.S. economic data, but the yellow metal was buoyed by safe haven demand amid a standoff over North Korea.

FUNDAMENTALS

* Spot gold <XAU=> was down 0.1 percent to $1,307.20 per ounce as of 0055 GMT. U.S. gold futures for December delivery eased 0.1 percent to $1,312.70.

* Investors rediscovered a taste for the dollar and Asian shares rose on Thursday as upbeat U.S. economic news whetted appetite for riskier assets globally, even as tensions over North Korea simmered in the background. [MKTS/GLOB] [USD/]


* U.S. President Donald Trump turned his populist rhetoric to tax reform on Wednesday, calling for "pro-American" business tax cuts as a way to create jobs and telling Congress that it needs to deliver.

* The United States called on Wednesday for "concerted action" by the international community to pressure North Korea into abandoning its banned nuclear and missile programmes and said it was working on new sanctions.

* Tropical Storm Harvey inflicted more damage on the heart of the U.S. energy industry on Wednesday, threatening to squeeze supplies across the country for weeks.

Nifty May Open On Negative Note, Shed 20 Points

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F&O Outlook:

Nifty PCR-OI has increased to 1.01 from 0.84. The rise in the ratio may be due to increase in PE of 9900 and decrease in CE of 9800. PE of 9800 and CE of 9900 are the highest number of contracts traded.

Opening for the Day:

Trading of SGX Nifty futures on the Singapore stock exchange indicates that the Nifty could lose 20.5 points at the opening bell.

Nifty Likely To Open Flat With Support Placed At 9853; Top 4 Stocks To Buy Today

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The Nifty50 is likely to open flat on Thursday tracking muted handover from Wall Street. The Nifty50 closed 88 points higher at 9,884 on Wednesday. If the index sustains above 9880 then up move could be seen towards 9950 then 10020 while on the downside supports are seen at 9820 then 9775.

The Nifty50 futures on the Singapore Stock Exchange were trading 20 points lower at 9860 indicating a flat opening for the domestic market.

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Yesterday, the Nifty closed 88.35 points or 0.90 percent higher at 9,884.40. According to Pivot charts, the key support level for Nifty50 is placed at 9,853.65, followed by 9,822.9. If the index starts to move higher then key resistance levels to watch out are 9,912.3, followed by 9,940.2.

Nifty Bank closed 179.75 points lower or 0.74 percent at 24,308.70 on Wednesday. Important pivot level, which will act as crucial support for the index is placed at 24,238.63, followed by 24,168.57. On the upside, the key resistance level is 24,381.43 followed by 24,454.16.

Wednesday, 30 August 2017

North Korea Issue Unlikely To Impact US mkt Seriously Yet

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The US market yesterday shrugged off North Korea tensions and major indices closed higher on Tuesday. So does this mean the risk appetite is back and would selling seen in Emerging market turn into inflows was the question asked by CNBC-TV18 to Richard Harris, Chief Executive, Port Shelter Investment Management.

Harris said it is too early to say that risk appetite is back because US is in the midst of third quarter, which is usually a jumpy one. It could be that the market was just looking for some reason to pull back but it is unlikely that this North Korea issue is going to be something very serious just yet.

According to him, the issues going on with Trump are quite discounted by the market, for the markets to take fright there has to be some sort of event or series of events. Although there could be some skittishness for a while.

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When asked if the first number of tax payments post introduction of GST in India and if the number continues to trend on similar path, would lead to an upgrade for the country, Harris said taking only one particular factor and one number into consideration would not be relevant. However, if the bull market in India continues then there will probably continue be long-term rotations into the market.

India fundamentals strong, buy on dips; like L&T, ICICI Bank, SBI: Macquarie

The market corrected recently from its record high but the actual correction is only around 3 percent compared to the rally of more than 22 percent since the beginning of the calendar year 2017.

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Stocks and Sectors

In capital goods, he said he will stick to quality stocks. It is the right time to buy Larsen & Toubro as he expects earnings recovery from next year onwards.

Even L&T has strong topline and orderbook position but the research house closely looks at its cash flow and margin, he said.

But he prefers banking sector as provisions may not be high (like in the past) going forward. ICICI Bankand SBI are preferred bets in the space.

On Infosys, Bhatia will continue with outperform rating as valuations are compelling after recent correction due to Vishal Sikka's sudden exit.

He said there was no lack of trust in Infosys management and company. Everyone is happy with the respected co-founder Nandan Nilekani who returned to the board, he added.

Crude Oil Futures Extend Decline On Concern Over A Fall In Demand

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Crude oil futures once again ended lower on Tuesday, as investor concerns grew over a fall in demand for U.S. oil, after Hurricane Harvey tore through Texas, shutting down more than 16% of overall U.S. capacity.
Traders were awaiting inventory data for further cues, expecting the API to report another draw-down in oil inventories last week. However, inventories are likely rise from this week due to interruptions at refineries near Houston.

Benchmark crude oil futures for October delivery ended down by $0.13 or 0.3 percent to $46.44 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for October delivery ended lower by $0.11 at $51.31 a barrel on the ICE.

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Indian Economic Activity Rebounded In July: Jefferies

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Indian economic activity rebounded in July after the implementation of the pan-India Goods and Services Tax (GST), following a moderation in growth in the previous month, American investment banker Jefferies said on Tuesday.

"Economic activity saw a sharp rebound in July, post the GST-led moderation in June, with our Activity Index growth improving to best levels in 9 months led by consumption indicators," Jefferies said in a report titled "Growth rebounds from GST lows".

Jefferies said the key positive in July was the sharp acceleration in auto sales and uptick in electricity consumption and railway traffic.

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The key negatives were the moderation in foreign trade and consequently port traffic and the weak credit growth, it added.

Weak credit growth and low private investment has been an ongoing problem in India for some time now.

Crude Dips, Gasoline Spikes As Floods Knock Out One-Fifth Of U.S. Refineries

Oil prices slid on Wednesday but gasoline spiked to their highest since July 2015 as flooding and storm damage in the wake of Hurricane Harvey has shut one-fifth of U.S. oil refineries, crimping demand for crude but raising fears of a fuel shortage.

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U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $46.30 per barrel at 0359 GMT, down 14 cents from their last close. Brent crude futures were down 20cents, at $51.80 a barrel.

In the refined product market, price movements are more dramatic. U.S. gasoline prices were 3.2 percent higher at $1.8391 per gallon on Wednesday. Prices earlier climbed to the most since July 31, 2015, at $1.842.

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Ultra-low sulphur diesel futures also gained 1.2 percent to $1.6854 a barrel and were earlier at their highest since Jan. 9 at $1.697.

"With fully 20 percent of the U.S. refining capacity offline, attention has been focused on potential shortages in refined products, with gasoline futures rocketing another four percent higher overnight," said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at futures brokerage OANDA.

"Severe flooding due to tropical storm Harvey is affecting refinery capacity and therefore crude demand," ANZ bank said in a note.

Markets Open On A Higher Note On Wednesday

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The 30-scrip Sensitive Index (Sensex) on Wednesday opened on a positive note during the morning session of the trade.

The Sensex of the BSE after opening at 31, 534.57 points, touched a high of 31,581.78 points and a low of 31,533.02 points.

On Tuesday the Sensex closed at 31,388.39 points.

The Sensex is trading at 31,603.98 points up by 215.59 points or 0.69 per cent.

On the other hand the broader 51-scrip Nifty at the National Stock Exchange (NSE) opened at 9,859.50 points after closing at 9,796.05 points.

The Nifty is trading at 9,860.70 points in the morning.

Gold Inches Lower On Dollar Rebound As North Korea Concerns Ease

Gold prices edged lower early on Wednesday after hitting a more than nine-month peak in the previous session, as the dollar recovered from multi-year lows on easing tensions surrounding North Korea.

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Spot gold inched down 0.1 percent to $1,308.11 per ounce as of 0020 GMT. In the previous session, it hit the highest since Nov. 9 at 1,325.94.

* U.S. gold futures for December delivery fell 0.4 percent to $1,313.70 per ounce.

* The dollar rebounded from a 2-1/2-year low on Wednesday as concerns about North Korea's firing of a missile over Japan ebbed, but Asian stocks were muted despite Wall Street's higher close.

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* North Korea said on Wednesday it had conducted a test of an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) to counter U.S. and South Korean military drills and as a first step in military action in the Pacific to "contain" the U.S. territory of Guam.

* The United States will not allow North Korea's lawlessness to continue and it is time for Pyongyang to recognise the "danger they are putting themselves in" as the world is united against them, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley said on Tuesday.

* Flooding from Tropical Storm Harvey has shut nearly a fifth of U.S. oil-refining capacity, triggering worries about a gasoline supply crunch as the slow-moving tempest lumbers through the heart of America's petrochemicals industry

Sensex Rebounds Over 150 pts, Nifty Above 9,850; Ujjivan Surges 6%

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Equity benchmarks opened sharply higher on Wednesday after a turmoil in previous session.

The 30-share BSE Sensex was up 167.09 points or 0.53 percent at 31,555.48 and the 50-share NSE Nifty rose 64 points or 0.65 percent to 9,860.05.

Aurobindo Pharma, Hindalco Industries, HDFC, Ambuja Cements, BPCL, Eicher Motors, Yes Bank and BPCL gained 1-2 percent while Asian Paints, Power Grid and NTPC were under pressure.

Nifty Midcap was up 1 percent on strong market breadth. Ujjivan Financial surged 5 percent as RBI granted it scheduled bank status.

Indian Rupee Opens Higher At 63.97 Per Dollar

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The Indian rupee opened higher by 5 paise at 63.97 per dollar on Wednesday versus 64.02 Tuesday.

Pramit Brahmbhatt of Veracity said, "On back of poor US economic data, the rupee will trade with a positive bias. Moreover, the dollar index has weakened."
"We expect the USD-INR pair to trade in a range of 63.80-64.20," he added.

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The US dollar turned positive against a basket of major rivals after touching its lowest level in over 2 years as traders brushed aside concerns surrounding a North Korean missile launch over Japan.
The rally in haven assets such as the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen slowed.

See Nifty open on positive note, gain 60 points

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F&O Outlook:

Nifty PCR-OI has decreased to 0.84 from 1.05. The fall in the ratio may be due to decrease in PE of 9900 and increase in CE of 9800. PE of 9800 and CE of 9900 are the highest number of contracts traded.

Opening for the Day:

Trading of SGX Nifty futures on the Singapore stock exchange indicates that the Nifty could gain 60 points at the opening bell.

Nifty Likely To Face Resistance At 9850-9900 Levels; 5 -Stocks Which Can Give Up To 14% Return

The Nifty50 has once again felt pressure at higher levels and could not manage to hold gains above 9,900 levels. The index ended below its crucial support of 9,800 in Tuesday’s session as heavy call writing in 9900 and 9800 strikes were seen along with put unwinding in 9900 strikes.

We have seen the heavy addition of open interest at higher levels on the short side by FIIs since the inception of current expiry. This clearly indicates short buildup and discomfort in the market.

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We expect the market to remain weak in August expiry, as indicated by option open interest concentration. The Nifty50 has major OI concentration at 9,800 puts which got broken in Tuesday’s session.

We expect the market to remain under pressure going forward and can correct up to 9750 and 9700 levels on the back of further selling.

Tuesday, 29 August 2017

Indian ADRs: Tata Motors, ICICI Bank slip, Infosys gains

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Indian ADRs ended mixed on Monday. In the IT space, Infosys rose 1.06 percent at USD 15.31 and Wipro was down 0.34 percent at USD 5.94.

In the banking space, ICICI Bank declined 0.64 percent at USD 9.38 and HDFC Bank was up 0.01 percent at USD 95.91.

In the other sectors, Tata Motors slipped 0.57 percent at USD 29.82 and Dr. Reddy's Laboratories rose 0.16 percent to USD 31.76.

Crude Oil Futures Suffer Sharp Sell-Off On Monday

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Crude oil futures suffered sharp sell-off with the start of the new week, as Tropical Storm Harvey continued to disrupt refinery activity along the US Gulf coast, adding to fears of an uptick in crude oil supplies. 

Weather Service reported that the breadth and intensity of the rainfall was beyond anything experienced before and said that catastrophic flooding is now underway and expected to continue for days. Flooding caused by the storm forced refiners in the Gulf of Mexico region to shutdown.

Benchmark crude oil futures for October delivery ended down by $1.30 or 2.7 percent to $46.57 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for October delivery ended lower by $1.44 at $51.23 a barrel on the ICE.

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Wall Street Closes Little Changed As Harvey Pummels Texas

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The S&P 500 and Dow ended little changed on Monday, with energy and bank shares lower as Tropical Storm Harvey crippled the US energy hub in Texas, while tech and healthcare gave a light boost to the Nasdaq.

Harvey, the most powerful hurricane to strike the southern US state in more than 50 years when it came ashore on Friday, dumped more rain on Houston on Monday, and the flooding could worsen as engineers release water from overflowing reservoirs to keep it from jumping dams and surging uncontrollably.

Buy, Sell, Hold: 1 Stock And 2 Sectors Are On The Radar Of Investors Today

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Brokerage: Nomura | Target: Rs 479

The brokerage house said that the stock price has more than halved from the peak, amid various concerns. The biggest drag, it said, has been the drag in US business. It also cut the FY18/19 earnings estimates by 65 and 32 percent.

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Metals

Brokerage: CLSA

CLSA maintained a buy on Hindalco and Vedanta, but prefers the latter. It updated EPS estimates for FY18-20 for Vedanta by 0-6 percent and 2-5 percent for Hindalco. The target for Vedanta was increased to Rs 380, while in case of Hindalco, it is Rs 290.

Gold Climbs To 9-1/2 Month High As North Korea Tensions Escalate

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Spot gold rose 0.6 percent to $1,316.90 per ounce by 0314 GMT, after earlier touching its highest since Nov. 9 at $1,322.33.

Gold gained 1.4 percent in the previous session in its biggest one-day percentage rise since mid-May.

U.S. gold futures for December delivery were up 0.6 percent to $1,322.80 per ounce.

South Korea and Japan said the missile North Korea launched early on Tuesday landed in Pacific waters east of Hokkaido after flying over the northern Japanese island, in a sharp escalation of tensions on the Korean peninsula.

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"North Korea's missiles over the Japanese Hokkaido islands obviously fueled buying for the flight for safety kind of money including the Japanese yen and gold," said Yuichi Ikemizu, Tokyo branch manager at ICBC Standard Bank.

The news saw equities plunging and the yen touching four-month highs against the dollar.

Geopolitical risks can boost demand for safe-haven assets such as gold which is considered a good store of value during volatility in other markets.

Spot gold is expected to rise to $1,337 per ounce, as it has cleared a resistance at $1,312, said Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao.