OPEC’s strong production cutbacks will provide downside pressure on oil inventories creating tightness in the oil market.

Precious metals closed the week with negative gains after the US reported strong economic data leading to a strong dollar. Gold prices fell 1.4 percent and silver prices lost 2.3 percent last week.

Base metals complex finished the week on a positive note with the lead leading with 4 percent during the week. Metal prices traded higher as the supply tightness supported most of the metal prices. Energy prices too joined the rally with crude oil and natural gas both gaining by 0.3 percent and 2.95 percent, respectively.

The markets remained optimistic on the expectation of trade deal between US-China and with the US Fed being patient over further rate hikes supported the dollar-priced commodities. Oil market remained stable on supporting fundamental and lower inventories.

Oil prices started the year with strong gains showing 17 percent upside in January followed by 6 percent gains in February 2019. The upside in prices has been supported with OPEC maintaining its targeted oil production curbs. Due to this, the global oil market is likely to shift towards being by balanced by the second half of 2019.

Saudi Arabia, one of the world's largest oil producers, exceeded its targeted oil output cuts stating firmly to achieve its objective. Furthermore, US oil sanctions on Iran and Venezuela is likely to lower its oil exports leading to lower oil supply. Also, the falling oil exports from Saudi Arabia to the United States are leading to higher crude oil inventory withdrawals in the United States.

OPEC’s strong production cutbacks will provide downside pressure on oil inventories creating tightness in the oil market. There may be a series of rangebound movement in oil prices on account of slowdown in the global economy. However, if the trade agreement is signed we might see strong upside in Nymex crude oil prices towards $63-65 a barrel by the second quarter of 2019.

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